Recognizing the importance of analyzing risk as part of business continuity, RedLogyc, a leading advisory services firm specializing in IT risk analysis and management and business continuity, has announced publication of a new book addressing the science and mathematics of risk analysis. Entitled “Probability of Interruption and Business Impact,” the book describes how to perform quantitative measurements of probability of interruption and business impact, which provides the basis for identifying future consequences of disruptive events.
According to Alejandro Aristizabal Correa, RedLogyc founder and the book’s author, “Today’s analysis of the probability of interruption of business processes or services is typically carried out using a variety of methods and models, some of them quantitative, giving the false impression of mathematical justification.”
The book contains mathematical models and the result of a mathematical theorem developed by Aristizabal that proposes new ways to analyze and estimate residual effects of organizational disruptions. “The models explain critical effects of business interruption, thus far hidden, by providing mathematical tools to calculate business impacts of risks based on the modeling process,” he added.
Written primarily for organizational leaders and subject matter experts, particularly in enterprise risk management, business continuity and related resilience disciplines, the book builds on general risk concepts and takes the reader through two analytical approaches based on the mathematics of interruption probability and business impacts. “We wanted to provide a different perspective on risk analysis,” Aristizabal said, “challenging readers to think twice about the already familiar risk process through the introduction of mathematical models that provide a deeper understanding of the risks being analyzed.” He added that it’s not uncommon for resilience practitioners to use subjective valuations, such as “low, medium or high” when developing a risk analysis. This approach may be useful in some situations, but Aristizabal’s models and analyses demonstrate how more precise risk results can be obtained using a more mathematical approach. Aristizabal added that videos are available that depict how the approaches described in the book can be applied to real-world enterprise risk management, business continuity and resilience situations.
About the Author: Alejandro Aristizabal Correa, MSc, author of “Probability of Interruption and Business Impact”, has over 15 years of experience in telecommunications networks and business continuity in multiple industries. His new book examines risk issues associated with business continuity from a mathematical perspective, and includes the fundamentals of risk-level calculations. In 2018, when seeking a solution to calculate the probability of interruption of organizational processes, Aristizabal discovered a probability distribution theorem that can be used to calculate the probability of events of any variable-rate process: the Variable-Rate Probability Distribution, or VRPD. The book includes his personal perspective on business continuity, as well as discussions on the effects of an organizational process interruption plus the application of his VRPD Distribution function in reliability and resilience engineering.
Aristizabal established RedLogyc in 2012 to provide consultancy services in IT risk management and business continuity. He has been an instructor of digital electronics and radio propagation at USB Colombia.